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Climatic outlook for Northern China

Projection outcomes from 40 climate models suggest that the nationwide mean temperature will increase between 2.3 and 3.3°C in 2050 for China. In many parts of Northern China the precipitation will increase as well. However, precipitation is expected to decrease along the Bohai Sea cost (Qin et al. 2006). The summarized outcome is supported by the results of several studies.

In a study up to 2020 based on simulation results of the HadCM2 climate model Tao et al. (2003) reports an increase in the simulated soil-moisture deficit for North China.

Kutzbach & Behling (2004) used the climate model GENESIS for two long time simulation experiments one for past another for future climate change. The later one assumed a tripling of pre-industrial (or current) CO2 levels. Beside the expected temperature increase the precipitation levels remain unaltered in large parts of China. In mid-latitudes (25–60° N) the increased temperature in the Future scenario leads to sufficient increases of evaporation such that Present to Future (Precipitation–Evapotranspiration) decrease in spite of steady or increased precipitation.

 Xu et al. (2006) simulated climate change using the PRECIS model for the B2 SRES scenario. In summary he reports warmer and dryer prospects for the Northeast, the Northern and Northwestern Chinese regions in the 2080s as consequence of the B2 SRES scenario.

(source: Wechsung, project proposal)

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